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Beti Onak vs Corellano — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Beti Onak
Beti Onak
FT
5 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Corellano
Corellano
4/23/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 29Estadio Lorenzo Goikoa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Beti Onak50%
×Draw24%
Corellano25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beti Onak
1.66
Corellano
1.11

Beti Onak creates 50% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 44 away

creates per match

Beti Onak
1.50
Corellano
1.00

allows per match

Beti Onak
1.22
Corellano
1.82

finishing

Beti Onak+0.00on par
Corellano+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beti Onak ↓

Corellano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Beti Onak or draw
75%
Beti Onak or Corellano
76%
Draw or Corellano
50%

Winning margin

Beti Onak wins by 2+
27%
Corellano wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Beti Onak 1+ goals
81%
Beti Onak 2+ goals
49%
Beti Onak 3+ goals
23%
Corellano 1+ goals
67%
Corellano 2+ goals
30%
Corellano 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Beti Onak (draw refunded)
66%
Corellano (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beti Onak at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.22 · 110 matches

Corellano away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.82 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beti Onak attack 1.50 + Corellano defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.66

Corellano attack 1.00 + Beti Onak defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Beti Onak scores more
50%
level
24%
Corellano scores more
25%

Beti Onak at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Beti Onak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15: Beti Onak 5–3 Corellano

Beti Onak beat Corellano 5-3 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on April 23, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Lorenzo Goikoa in Villava.