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Beti Onak vs Atlético Artajonés — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Beti Onak
Beti Onak
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Atlético Artajonés
Atlético Artajonés
1/18/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 18Estadio Lorenzo Goikoa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Beti Onak56%
×Draw23%
Atlético Artajonés20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beti Onak
1.76
Atlético Artajonés
0.95

Beti Onak creates 85% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 34 away

creates per match

Beti Onak
1.50
Atlético Artajonés
0.68

allows per match

Beti Onak
1.22
Atlético Artajonés
2.03

finishing

Beti Onak+0.00on par
Atlético Artajonés+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beti Onak ↓

Atlético Artajonés →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Beti Onak or draw
80%
Beti Onak or Atlético Artajonés
77%
Draw or Atlético Artajonés
44%

Winning margin

Beti Onak wins by 2+
32%
Atlético Artajonés wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Beti Onak 1+ goals
83%
Beti Onak 2+ goals
52%
Beti Onak 3+ goals
26%
Atlético Artajonés 1+ goals
61%
Atlético Artajonés 2+ goals
25%
Atlético Artajonés 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Beti Onak (draw refunded)
74%
Atlético Artajonés (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beti Onak at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.22 · 110 matches

Atlético Artajonés away — creates 0.68, concedes 2.03 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beti Onak attack 1.50 + Atlético Artajonés defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.76

Atlético Artajonés attack 0.68 + Beti Onak defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Beti Onak scores more
56%
level
23%
Atlético Artajonés scores more
20%

Beti Onak at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Beti Onak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15: Beti Onak 2–1 Atlético Artajonés

Beti Onak beat Atlético Artajonés 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on January 18, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Lorenzo Goikoa in Villava.