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Beti Onak vs Alesves — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Beti Onak
Beti Onak
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Alesves
Alesves
11/26/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 12Estadio Lorenzo Goikoa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Beti Onak54%
×Draw24%
Alesves22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beti Onak
1.72
Alesves
1.00

Beti Onak creates 72% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 32 away

creates per match

Beti Onak
1.50
Alesves
0.78

allows per match

Beti Onak
1.22
Alesves
1.94

finishing

Beti Onak+0.00on par
Alesves+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beti Onak ↓

Alesves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Beti Onak or draw
78%
Beti Onak or Alesves
76%
Draw or Alesves
46%

Winning margin

Beti Onak wins by 2+
30%
Alesves wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Beti Onak 1+ goals
82%
Beti Onak 2+ goals
51%
Beti Onak 3+ goals
25%
Alesves 1+ goals
63%
Alesves 2+ goals
26%
Alesves 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Beti Onak (draw refunded)
71%
Alesves (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beti Onak at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.22 · 110 matches

Alesves away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.94 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beti Onak attack 1.50 + Alesves defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.72

Alesves attack 0.78 + Beti Onak defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Beti Onak scores more
54%
level
24%
Alesves scores more
22%

Beti Onak at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Beti Onak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Beti Onak vs Alesves

Alesves beat Beti Onak 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on November 26, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Lorenzo Goikoa in Villava.