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Beti Kozkor vs Peña Azagresa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Beti Kozkor
Beti Kozkor
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Peña Azagresa
Peña Azagresa
1/25/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 21Complejo Deportivo Plazaola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Beti Kozkor57%
×Draw22%
Peña Azagresa20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beti Kozkor
1.89
Peña Azagresa
1.03

Beti Kozkor creates 83% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 28 away

creates per match

Beti Kozkor
1.35
Peña Azagresa
1.14

allows per match

Beti Kozkor
0.92
Peña Azagresa
2.43

finishing

Beti Kozkor+0.00on par
Peña Azagresa+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beti Kozkor ↓

Peña Azagresa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Beti Kozkor or draw
80%
Beti Kozkor or Peña Azagresa
78%
Draw or Peña Azagresa
43%

Winning margin

Beti Kozkor wins by 2+
33%
Peña Azagresa wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Beti Kozkor 1+ goals
85%
Beti Kozkor 2+ goals
56%
Beti Kozkor 3+ goals
29%
Peña Azagresa 1+ goals
64%
Peña Azagresa 2+ goals
28%
Peña Azagresa 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Beti Kozkor (draw refunded)
74%
Peña Azagresa (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beti Kozkor at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.92 · 92 matches

Peña Azagresa away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.43 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beti Kozkor attack 1.35 + Peña Azagresa defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 1.89

Peña Azagresa attack 1.14 + Beti Kozkor defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Beti Kozkor scores more
57%
level
22%
Peña Azagresa scores more
20%

Beti Kozkor at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Beti Kozkor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Beti Kozkor 3 – 0 Peña Azagresa

Beti Kozkor beat Peña Azagresa 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on January 25, 2020.

The match was played at Complejo Deportivo Plazaola in Lekunberri.