Beti Kozkor vs Lourdes: Preview & Prediction

Beti Kozkor

CANC

00:00

Lourdes

3/14/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 28Complejo Deportivo Plazaola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Beti Kozkor55%

×Draw25%

Lourdes20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Beti KozkorExpected goals in this matchLourdes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

0.89

Beti Kozkor

1.64

Lourdes

0.89

Beti Kozkor creates 84% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 29 away

1.35

creates per match

0.86

0.92

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Beti Kozkor

1.35

Lourdes

0.86

allows per match

Beti Kozkor

0.92

Lourdes

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beti Kozkor+0.00on par

Lourdes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beti Kozkor ↓

Lourdes →

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Beti Kozkor or draw

80%

Beti Kozkor or Lourdes

75%

Draw or Lourdes

45%

Winning margin

Beti Kozkor wins by 2+

30%

Lourdes wins by 2+

Team goals

Beti Kozkor 1+ goals

81%

Beti Kozkor 2+ goals

49%

Beti Kozkor 3+ goals

23%

Lourdes 1+ goals

59%

Lourdes 2+ goals

22%

Lourdes 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Beti Kozkor (draw refunded)

73%

Lourdes (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Beti Kozkor at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.92 · 92 matches

Lourdes away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.93 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Beti Kozkor attack 1.35 + Lourdes defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.64

Lourdes attack 0.86 + Beti Kozkor defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 55%?"

Beti Kozkor scores more

55%

level

25%

Lourdes scores more

20%

Beti Kozkor at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Beti Kozkor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Beti Kozkor host Lourdes

March 14, 2020: Beti Kozkor take on Lourdes in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Beti Kozkor host Lourdes at Complejo Deportivo Plazaola.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

Beti Kozkor vs Lourdes — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Preview: Beti Kozkor host Lourdes