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Beti Kozkor vs Izarra — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Beti Kozkor
Beti Kozkor
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Izarra
Izarra
10/11/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 6Complejo Deportivo Plazaola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Beti Kozkor38%
×Draw26%
Izarra36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beti Kozkor
1.33
Izarra
1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 92 home / 19 away

creates per match

Beti Kozkor
1.35
Izarra
1.68

allows per match

Beti Kozkor
0.92
Izarra
1.32

finishing

Beti Kozkor+0.00on par
Izarra+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beti Kozkor ↓

Izarra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Beti Kozkor or draw
64%
Beti Kozkor or Izarra
74%
Draw or Izarra
62%

Winning margin

Beti Kozkor wins by 2+
17%
Izarra wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Beti Kozkor 1+ goals
74%
Beti Kozkor 2+ goals
38%
Beti Kozkor 3+ goals
15%
Izarra 1+ goals
73%
Izarra 2+ goals
37%
Izarra 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Beti Kozkor (draw refunded)
51%
Izarra (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beti Kozkor at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.92 · 92 matches

Izarra away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beti Kozkor attack 1.35 + Izarra defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.33

Izarra attack 1.68 + Beti Kozkor defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Beti Kozkor scores more
38%
level
26%
Izarra scores more
36%

Beti Kozkor at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Beti Kozkor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15: Beti Kozkor 0–3 Izarra

Izarra beat Beti Kozkor 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on October 11, 2025.

The match was played at Complejo Deportivo Plazaola in Lekunberri.