Beti Kozkor 0–0 Avance Ezcabarte: Result & Stats

Beti Kozkor

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Avance Ezcabarte

1/13/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 16Complejo Deportivo Plazaola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Beti Kozkor48%

×Draw27%

Avance Ezcabarte25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Beti KozkorExpected goals in this matchAvance Ezcabarte

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

0.95

Beti Kozkor

1.43

Avance Ezcabarte

0.95

Beti Kozkor creates 51% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 64 away

1.35

creates per match

0.97

0.92

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Beti Kozkor

1.35

Avance Ezcabarte

0.97

allows per match

Beti Kozkor

0.92

Avance Ezcabarte

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beti Kozkor+0.00on par

Avance Ezcabarte+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beti Kozkor ↓

Avance Ezcabarte →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Beti Kozkor or draw

75%

Beti Kozkor or Avance Ezcabarte

73%

Draw or Avance Ezcabarte

52%

Winning margin

Beti Kozkor wins by 2+

24%

Avance Ezcabarte wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Beti Kozkor 1+ goals

76%

Beti Kozkor 2+ goals

42%

Beti Kozkor 3+ goals

17%

Avance Ezcabarte 1+ goals

61%

Avance Ezcabarte 2+ goals

25%

Avance Ezcabarte 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Beti Kozkor (draw refunded)

66%

Avance Ezcabarte (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beti Kozkor at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.92 · 92 matches

Avance Ezcabarte away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.50 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beti Kozkor attack 1.35 + Avance Ezcabarte defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.43

Avance Ezcabarte attack 0.97 + Beti Kozkor defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Beti Kozkor scores more

48%

level

27%

Avance Ezcabarte scores more

25%

Beti Kozkor at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Beti Kozkor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff