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Beti Gazte vs Pasaia KE — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Beti Gazte
Beti Gazte
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Pasaia KE
Pasaia KE
10/12/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 8Campo de fútbol de Mastegi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Beti Gazte35%
×Draw28%
Pasaia KE38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beti Gazte
1.17
Pasaia KE
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 111 away

creates per match

Beti Gazte
0.95
Pasaia KE
1.00

allows per match

Beti Gazte
1.47
Pasaia KE
1.38

finishing

Beti Gazte+0.00on par
Pasaia KE+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beti Gazte ↓

Pasaia KE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Beti Gazte or draw
62%
Beti Gazte or Pasaia KE
72%
Draw or Pasaia KE
65%

Winning margin

Beti Gazte wins by 2+
14%
Pasaia KE wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Beti Gazte 1+ goals
69%
Beti Gazte 2+ goals
33%
Beti Gazte 3+ goals
11%
Pasaia KE 1+ goals
71%
Pasaia KE 2+ goals
35%
Pasaia KE 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Beti Gazte (draw refunded)
48%
Pasaia KE (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beti Gazte at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.47 · 19 matches

Pasaia KE away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.38 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beti Gazte attack 0.95 + Pasaia KE defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.17

Pasaia KE attack 1.00 + Beti Gazte defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Beti Gazte scores more
35%
level
28%
Pasaia KE scores more
38%

Pasaia KE at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Pasaia KE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Beti Gazte vs Pasaia KE

Pasaia KE beat Beti Gazte 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on October 12, 2021.

The match was played at Campo de fútbol de Mastegi in Lesaka.