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Beti Gazte vs Leioa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Beti Gazte
Beti Gazte
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Leioa
Leioa
9/19/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 4Campo de fútbol de Mastegi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Beti Gazte29%
×Draw27%
Leioa43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beti Gazte
1.05
Leioa
1.33

Leioa creates 27% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 87 away

creates per match

Beti Gazte
0.95
Leioa
1.20

allows per match

Beti Gazte
1.47
Leioa
1.15

finishing

Beti Gazte+0.00on par
Leioa+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beti Gazte ↓

Leioa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Beti Gazte or draw
57%
Beti Gazte or Leioa
73%
Draw or Leioa
71%

Winning margin

Beti Gazte wins by 2+
11%
Leioa wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Beti Gazte 1+ goals
65%
Beti Gazte 2+ goals
28%
Beti Gazte 3+ goals
9%
Leioa 1+ goals
74%
Leioa 2+ goals
38%
Leioa 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Beti Gazte (draw refunded)
41%
Leioa (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beti Gazte at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.47 · 19 matches

Leioa away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.15 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beti Gazte attack 0.95 + Leioa defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.05

Leioa attack 1.20 + Beti Gazte defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Beti Gazte scores more
29%
level
27%
Leioa scores more
43%

Leioa at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Leioa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Beti Gazte 0–1 Leioa

Leioa beat Beti Gazte 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on September 19, 2021.

The match was played at Campo de fútbol de Mastegi in Lesaka.