Beti Gazte 2–2 Durango: Result & Stats

Beti Gazte

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Durango

1/9/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 20Campo de fútbol de Mastegi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Beti Gazte33%

×Draw28%

Durango38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Beti GazteExpected goals in this matchDurango

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.21

Beti Gazte

1.11

Durango

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 114 away

0.95

creates per match

0.96

1.47

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Beti Gazte

0.95

Durango

0.96

allows per match

Beti Gazte

1.47

Durango

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beti Gazte+0.00on par

Durango+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beti Gazte ↓

Durango →

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Beti Gazte or draw

62%

Beti Gazte or Durango

72%

Draw or Durango

67%

Winning margin

Beti Gazte wins by 2+

13%

Durango wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Beti Gazte 1+ goals

67%

Beti Gazte 2+ goals

30%

Beti Gazte 3+ goals

10%

Durango 1+ goals

70%

Durango 2+ goals

34%

Durango 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Beti Gazte (draw refunded)

47%

Durango (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Beti Gazte at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.47 · 19 matches

Durango away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.27 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Beti Gazte attack 0.95 + Durango defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.11

Durango attack 0.96 + Beti Gazte defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

Beti Gazte scores more

33%

level

28%

Durango scores more

38%

Durango at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Durango will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff