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Beti Gazte vs Deportivo Alavés II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Beti Gazte
Beti Gazte
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Deportivo Alavés II
Deportivo Alavés II
4/3/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 34Campo de fútbol de Mastegi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Beti Gazte22%
×Draw26%
Deportivo Alavés II52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beti Gazte
0.87
Deportivo Alavés II
1.50

Deportivo Alavés II creates 72% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Beti Gazte
0.95
Deportivo Alavés II
1.53

allows per match

Beti Gazte
1.47
Deportivo Alavés II
0.79

finishing

Beti Gazte+0.00on par
Deportivo Alavés II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beti Gazte ↓

Deportivo Alavés II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–114%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Beti Gazte or draw
48%
Beti Gazte or Deportivo Alavés II
74%
Draw or Deportivo Alavés II
78%

Winning margin

Beti Gazte wins by 2+
7%
Deportivo Alavés II wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Beti Gazte 1+ goals
58%
Beti Gazte 2+ goals
22%
Beti Gazte 3+ goals
6%
Deportivo Alavés II 1+ goals
78%
Deportivo Alavés II 2+ goals
44%
Deportivo Alavés II 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Beti Gazte (draw refunded)
30%
Deportivo Alavés II (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beti Gazte at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.47 · 19 matches

Deportivo Alavés II away — creates 1.53, concedes 0.79 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beti Gazte attack 0.95 + Deportivo Alavés II defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.87

Deportivo Alavés II attack 1.53 + Beti Gazte defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Beti Gazte scores more
22%
level
26%
Deportivo Alavés II scores more
52%

Deportivo Alavés II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Deportivo Alavés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Beti Gazte 1 – 2 Deportivo Alavés II

Deportivo Alavés II beat Beti Gazte 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on April 3, 2022.

The match was played at Campo de fútbol de Mastegi in Lesaka.