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Betanzos vs Arzúa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Betanzos
Betanzos
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Arzúa
Arzúa
1/28/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 18Estadio García Hermanos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Betanzos45%
×Draw28%
Arzúa27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Betanzos
1.35
Arzúa
0.98

Betanzos creates 38% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 79 away

creates per match

Betanzos
0.97
Arzúa
0.86

allows per match

Betanzos
1.09
Arzúa
1.73

finishing

Betanzos+0.00on par
Arzúa+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Betanzos ↓

Arzúa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Betanzos or draw
73%
Betanzos or Arzúa
72%
Draw or Arzúa
55%

Winning margin

Betanzos wins by 2+
21%
Arzúa wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Betanzos 1+ goals
74%
Betanzos 2+ goals
39%
Betanzos 3+ goals
15%
Arzúa 1+ goals
62%
Arzúa 2+ goals
26%
Arzúa 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Betanzos (draw refunded)
62%
Arzúa (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Betanzos at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.09 · 34 matches

Arzúa away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.73 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Betanzos attack 0.97 + Arzúa defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.35

Arzúa attack 0.86 + Betanzos defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Betanzos scores more
45%
level
28%
Arzúa scores more
27%

Betanzos at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Betanzos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1: Betanzos 2–0 Arzúa

Betanzos beat Arzúa 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on January 28, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio García Hermanos in Betanzos.