Beskyd Frenštát 1–4 Vítkovice: Result & Stats

Beskyd Frenštát

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Vítkovice

5/5/2024

4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 24Stadion Na Nivách

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Beskyd Frenštát29%

×Draw21%

Vítkovice50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Beskyd FrenštátExpected goals in this matchVítkovice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

2.17

Beskyd Frenštát

1.64

Vítkovice

2.17

Vítkovice creates 32% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 49 away

1.59

creates per match

2.55

1.80

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Beskyd Frenštát

1.59

Vítkovice

2.55

allows per match

Beskyd Frenštát

1.80

Vítkovice

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beskyd Frenštát+0.00on par

Vítkovice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beskyd Frenštát ↓

Vítkovice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Beskyd Frenštát or draw

50%

Beskyd Frenštát or Vítkovice

79%

Draw or Vítkovice

71%

Winning margin

Beskyd Frenštát wins by 2+

14%

Vítkovice wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Beskyd Frenštát 1+ goals

81%

Beskyd Frenštát 2+ goals

49%

Beskyd Frenštát 3+ goals

23%

Vítkovice 1+ goals

89%

Vítkovice 2+ goals

64%

Vítkovice 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Beskyd Frenštát (draw refunded)

37%

Vítkovice (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beskyd Frenštát at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.80 · 61 matches

Vítkovice away — creates 2.55, concedes 1.69 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beskyd Frenštát attack 1.59 + Vítkovice defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.64

Vítkovice attack 2.55 + Beskyd Frenštát defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Beskyd Frenštát scores more

29%

level

21%

Vítkovice scores more

50%

Vítkovice at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Vítkovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff