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Beskyd Frenštát vs Havířov — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Beskyd Frenštát
Beskyd Frenštát
CANC
15:30
Havířov
Havířov
6/27/20214. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 26Stadion Na Nivách

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Beskyd Frenštát33%
×Draw22%
Havířov45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beskyd Frenštát
1.60
Havířov
1.90

Havířov creates 19% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 75 away

creates per match

Beskyd Frenštát
1.59
Havířov
2.01

allows per match

Beskyd Frenštát
1.80
Havířov
1.61

finishing

Beskyd Frenštát+0.00on par
Havířov+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beskyd Frenštát ↓

Havířov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Beskyd Frenštát or draw
55%
Beskyd Frenštát or Havířov
78%
Draw or Havířov
67%

Winning margin

Beskyd Frenštát wins by 2+
16%
Havířov wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Beskyd Frenštát 1+ goals
80%
Beskyd Frenštát 2+ goals
47%
Beskyd Frenštát 3+ goals
22%
Havířov 1+ goals
85%
Havířov 2+ goals
56%
Havířov 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Beskyd Frenštát (draw refunded)
42%
Havířov (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beskyd Frenštát at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.80 · 61 matches

Havířov away — creates 2.01, concedes 1.61 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beskyd Frenštát attack 1.59 + Havířov defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.60

Havířov attack 2.01 + Beskyd Frenštát defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Beskyd Frenštát scores more
33%
level
22%
Havířov scores more
45%

Havířov at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Havířov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Beskyd Frenštát vs Havířov — Match Preview

Beskyd Frenštát face Havířov on June 27, 2021 in this 4. liga - Divizie F fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Beskyd Frenštát host Havířov at Stadion Na Nivách.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.