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Beskyd Frenštát vs Břidličná — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Beskyd Frenštát
Beskyd Frenštát
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Břidličná
Břidličná
9/11/20224. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 6Stadion Na Nivách

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Beskyd Frenštát46%
×Draw22%
Břidličná31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beskyd Frenštát
1.91
Břidličná
1.54

Beskyd Frenštát creates 24% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 58 away

creates per match

Beskyd Frenštát
1.59
Břidličná
1.29

allows per match

Beskyd Frenštát
1.80
Břidličná
2.22

finishing

Beskyd Frenštát+0.00on par
Břidličná+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beskyd Frenštát ↓

Břidličná →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Beskyd Frenštát or draw
69%
Beskyd Frenštát or Břidličná
78%
Draw or Břidličná
54%

Winning margin

Beskyd Frenštát wins by 2+
26%
Břidličná wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Beskyd Frenštát 1+ goals
85%
Beskyd Frenštát 2+ goals
57%
Beskyd Frenštát 3+ goals
30%
Břidličná 1+ goals
79%
Břidličná 2+ goals
45%
Břidličná 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Beskyd Frenštát (draw refunded)
60%
Břidličná (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beskyd Frenštát at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.80 · 61 matches

Břidličná away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.22 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beskyd Frenštát attack 1.59 + Břidličná defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.91

Břidličná attack 1.29 + Beskyd Frenštát defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Beskyd Frenštát scores more
46%
level
22%
Břidličná scores more
31%

Beskyd Frenštát at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Beskyd Frenštát will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie F: Beskyd Frenštát 2–1 Břidličná

Beskyd Frenštát beat Břidličná 2-1 in 4. liga - Divizie F on September 11, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Na Nivách in Frenštát pod Radhoštěm.