Beskyd Frenštát 1–1 Bospor Bohumín: Result & Stats

Beskyd Frenštát

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Bospor Bohumín

5/19/2024

4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 26Stadion Na Nivách

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Beskyd Frenštát34%

×Draw23%

Bospor Bohumín44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Beskyd FrenštátExpected goals in this matchBospor Bohumín

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.81

Beskyd Frenštát

1.57

Bospor Bohumín

1.81

Bospor Bohumín creates 15% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 77 away

1.59

creates per match

1.81

1.80

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Beskyd Frenštát

1.59

Bospor Bohumín

1.81

allows per match

Beskyd Frenštát

1.80

Bospor Bohumín

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beskyd Frenštát+0.00on par

Bospor Bohumín+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beskyd Frenštát ↓

Bospor Bohumín →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Beskyd Frenštát or draw

56%

Beskyd Frenštát or Bospor Bohumín

77%

Draw or Bospor Bohumín

66%

Winning margin

Beskyd Frenštát wins by 2+

16%

Bospor Bohumín wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Beskyd Frenštát 1+ goals

79%

Beskyd Frenštát 2+ goals

46%

Beskyd Frenštát 3+ goals

21%

Bospor Bohumín 1+ goals

84%

Bospor Bohumín 2+ goals

54%

Bospor Bohumín 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Beskyd Frenštát (draw refunded)

44%

Bospor Bohumín (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beskyd Frenštát at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.80 · 61 matches

Bospor Bohumín away — creates 1.81, concedes 1.55 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beskyd Frenštát attack 1.59 + Bospor Bohumín defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.57

Bospor Bohumín attack 1.81 + Beskyd Frenštát defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Beskyd Frenštát scores more

34%

level

23%

Bospor Bohumín scores more

44%

Bospor Bohumín at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bospor Bohumín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff