Beşiktaş 3–2 St Patrick's Athl.: Result & Stats

Beşiktaş

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

St Patrick's Athl.

8/14/2025

UEFA Europa Conference League · 3rd Qualifying RoundTupras Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Beşiktaş34%

×Draw24%

St Patrick's Athl.42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BeşiktaşExpected goals in this matchSt Patrick's Athl.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.58

Beşiktaş

1.40

St Patrick's Athl.

1.58

St Patrick's Athl. creates 13% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

1.50

creates per match

1.29

1.88

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Beşiktaş

1.50

St Patrick's Athl.

1.29

allows per match

Beşiktaş

1.88

St Patrick's Athl.

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beşiktaş+0.00on par

St Patrick's Athl.+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beşiktaş ↓

St Patrick's Athl. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Beşiktaş or draw

58%

Beşiktaş or St Patrick's Athl.

76%

Draw or St Patrick's Athl.

66%

Winning margin

Beşiktaş wins by 2+

15%

St Patrick's Athl. wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Beşiktaş 1+ goals

75%

Beşiktaş 2+ goals

41%

Beşiktaş 3+ goals

17%

St Patrick's Athl. 1+ goals

79%

St Patrick's Athl. 2+ goals

47%

St Patrick's Athl. 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Beşiktaş (draw refunded)

45%

St Patrick's Athl. (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beşiktaş at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

St Patrick's Athl. away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beşiktaş attack 1.50 + St Patrick's Athl. defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.40

St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.29 + Beşiktaş defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Beşiktaş scores more

34%

level

24%

St Patrick's Athl. scores more

42%

St Patrick's Athl. at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "St Patrick's Athl. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff