Beşiktaş 1–2 SC Braga: Result & Stats

Beşiktaş

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

SC Braga

U. Nayir 71'

Wilson Eduardo 80'

Ricardo Horta 38'

10/24/2019

UEFA Europa League · Group Stage - 3Vodafone Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Beşiktaş32%

×Draw23%

SC Braga45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BeşiktaşExpected goals in this matchSC Braga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.78

Beşiktaş

1.46

SC Braga

1.78

SC Braga creates 22% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 28 away

1.50

creates per match

1.68

1.88

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Beşiktaş

1.50

SC Braga

1.68

allows per match

Beşiktaş

1.88

SC Braga

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beşiktaş+0.00on par

SC Braga+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beşiktaş ↓

SC Braga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Beşiktaş or draw

55%

Beşiktaş or SC Braga

77%

Draw or SC Braga

68%

Winning margin

Beşiktaş wins by 2+

15%

SC Braga wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Beşiktaş 1+ goals

77%

Beşiktaş 2+ goals

43%

Beşiktaş 3+ goals

18%

SC Braga 1+ goals

83%

SC Braga 2+ goals

53%

SC Braga 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Beşiktaş (draw refunded)

41%

SC Braga (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beşiktaş at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

SC Braga away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.43 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beşiktaş attack 1.50 + SC Braga defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.46

SC Braga attack 1.68 + Beşiktaş defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Beşiktaş scores more

32%

level

23%

SC Braga scores more

45%

SC Braga at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "SC Braga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

Ricardo Horta

SC Braga · M

8.3

Match Events

19'

30'

38'

56'

61'

K. Yılmaz← O. Özyakup

67'

71'

73'

75'

75'

Wilson Eduardo← André Horta

78'

Ricardo Esgaio

80'

Wilson Eduardo↳ Galeno

83'

83'

84'

88'

88'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BeşiktaşSC

Overview

58%Possession42%

12Total Shots15

6Corners3

8Fouls12

Shots

12Total Shots15

3On Target6

4Off Target9

5Blocked0

7Inside Box8

5Outside Box7

Passing

58%Possession42%

645Total Passes455

537Accurate Passes352

83%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls12

2Yellow Cards6

1Offsides4

Match Recap: Beşiktaş vs SC Braga

SC Braga beat Beşiktaş 2-1 in UEFA Europa League on October 24, 2019.

Goals: Ricardo Horta (38'), U. Nayir (71'), Wilson Eduardo (80').

Beşiktaş controlled possession (58%) and registered 12 shots to 15.

The match was played at Vodafone Park in İstanbul.

Beşiktaş vs SC Braga — UEFA Europa League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Beşiktaş vs SC Braga