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Beşiktaş vs Lausanne — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Beşiktaş
Beşiktaş
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Lausanne
Lausanne
8/28/2025UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · Playoff roundTupras Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Beşiktaş30%
×Draw27%
Lausanne43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beşiktaş
1.10
Lausanne
1.37

Lausanne creates 25% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

creates per match

Beşiktaş
1.50
Lausanne
0.86

allows per match

Beşiktaş
1.88
Lausanne
0.71

finishing

Beşiktaş+0.00on par
Lausanne+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beşiktaş ↓

Lausanne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Beşiktaş or draw
57%
Beşiktaş or Lausanne
73%
Draw or Lausanne
70%

Winning margin

Beşiktaş wins by 2+
12%
Lausanne wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Beşiktaş 1+ goals
67%
Beşiktaş 2+ goals
30%
Beşiktaş 3+ goals
10%
Lausanne 1+ goals
75%
Lausanne 2+ goals
40%
Lausanne 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Beşiktaş (draw refunded)
41%
Lausanne (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beşiktaş at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

Lausanne away — creates 0.86, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beşiktaş attack 1.50 + Lausanne defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.10

Lausanne attack 0.86 + Beşiktaş defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Beşiktaş scores more
30%
level
27%
Lausanne scores more
43%

Lausanne at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Lausanne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Beşiktaş vs Lausanne

Lausanne beat Beşiktaş 1-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on August 28, 2025.

The match was played at Tupras Stadium in Istanbul.