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Beşiktaş vs Göztepe — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Beşiktaş
Beşiktaş
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Göztepe
Göztepeadvanced
4/3/2025Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · Quarter-finalsTüpraş Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Beşiktaş45%
×Draw23%
Göztepe32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beşiktaş
1.80
Göztepe
1.49

Beşiktaş creates 21% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 12 away

creates per match

Beşiktaş
2.28
Göztepe
2.08

allows per match

Beşiktaş
0.89
Göztepe
1.33

finishing

Beşiktaş+0.00on par
Göztepe+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beşiktaş ↓

Göztepe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Beşiktaş or draw
68%
Beşiktaş or Göztepe
77%
Draw or Göztepe
55%

Winning margin

Beşiktaş wins by 2+
24%
Göztepe wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Beşiktaş 1+ goals
83%
Beşiktaş 2+ goals
54%
Beşiktaş 3+ goals
27%
Göztepe 1+ goals
77%
Göztepe 2+ goals
44%
Göztepe 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Beşiktaş (draw refunded)
58%
Göztepe (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beşiktaş at home — creates 2.28, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

Göztepe away — creates 2.08, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beşiktaş attack 2.28 + Göztepe defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.80

Göztepe attack 2.08 + Beşiktaş defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Beşiktaş scores more
45%
level
23%
Göztepe scores more
32%

Beşiktaş at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Beşiktaş will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Beşiktaş 1–3 Göztepe

Göztepe beat Beşiktaş 3-1 in Türkiye Kupası on April 3, 2025.

The match was played at Tüpraş Stadyumu in İstanbul.