Beşiktaş 2–4 Genk: Result & Stats

Beşiktaş

FT

2 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Genk

Vágner Love 86', 74'

J. Piotrowski 83'

D. N'Dongala 81'

M. Samatta 69', 23'

10/25/2018

UEFA Europa League · Group Stage - 3Vodafone Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Beşiktaş33%

×Draw23%

Genk45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BeşiktaşExpected goals in this matchGenk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.83

Beşiktaş

1.54

Genk

1.83

Genk creates 19% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 14 away

1.50

creates per match

1.79

1.88

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Beşiktaş

1.50

Genk

1.79

allows per match

Beşiktaş

1.88

Genk

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beşiktaş+0.00on par

Genk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beşiktaş ↓

Genk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Beşiktaş or draw

55%

Beşiktaş or Genk

77%

Draw or Genk

67%

Winning margin

Beşiktaş wins by 2+

15%

Genk wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Beşiktaş 1+ goals

79%

Beşiktaş 2+ goals

45%

Beşiktaş 3+ goals

20%

Genk 1+ goals

84%

Genk 2+ goals

54%

Genk 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Beşiktaş (draw refunded)

42%

Genk (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beşiktaş at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

Genk away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beşiktaş attack 1.50 + Genk defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.54

Genk attack 1.79 + Beşiktaş defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Beşiktaş scores more

33%

level

23%

Genk scores more

45%

Genk at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Genk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

M. Samatta

Genk · F

8.5

Match Events

23'

27'

45'

45'

45'

46'

Vágner Love← C. Larin

47'

56'

61'

69'

74'

Vágner Love↳ G. Gönül

75'

J. Piotrowski← J. Paintsil

80'

I. Seck← Pozuelo

81'

D. N'Dongala↳ R. Malinovskiy

83'

J. Piotrowski↳ M. Samatta

85'

M. Pektemek← C. Erkin

86'

Vágner Love↳ M. Pektemek

87'

Z. Gano← M. Samatta

89'

Mustafa Pektemek

90'

Oğuzhan Özyakup

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BeşiktaşGenk

Overview

54%Possession46%

17Total Shots16

4Corners3

21Fouls18

Shots

17Total Shots16

6On Target7

5Off Target8

6Blocked1

12Inside Box10

5Outside Box6

Passing

54%Possession46%

495Total Passes422

396Accurate Passes329

80%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

21Fouls18

5Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

4Offsides6

UEFA Europa League: Beşiktaş 2–4 Genk

Genk beat Beşiktaş 4-2 in UEFA Europa League on October 25, 2018.

Goals: M. Samatta (23', 69'), Vágner Love (74', 86'), D. N'Dongala (81'), J. Piotrowski (83').

Beşiktaş controlled possession (54%) and registered 17 shots to 16.

The match was played at Vodafone Park in Istanbul.

Beşiktaş vs Genk — UEFA Europa League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UEFA Europa League: Beşiktaş 2–4 Genk