Beşiktaş 2–3 FC Lugano: Result & Stats

Beşiktaş

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

FC Lugano

10/5/2023

UEFA Europa Conference League · Group Stage - 2Tüpraş Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Beşiktaş42%

×Draw22%

FC Lugano36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BeşiktaşExpected goals in this matchFC Lugano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.72

Beşiktaş

1.86

FC Lugano

1.72

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

1.50

creates per match

1.56

1.88

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

Beşiktaş

1.50

FC Lugano

1.56

allows per match

Beşiktaş

1.88

FC Lugano

2.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beşiktaş+0.00on par

FC Lugano+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beşiktaş ↓

FC Lugano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Beşiktaş or draw

64%

Beşiktaş or FC Lugano

78%

Draw or FC Lugano

58%

Winning margin

Beşiktaş wins by 2+

22%

FC Lugano wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Beşiktaş 1+ goals

84%

Beşiktaş 2+ goals

55%

Beşiktaş 3+ goals

28%

FC Lugano 1+ goals

82%

FC Lugano 2+ goals

51%

FC Lugano 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Beşiktaş (draw refunded)

54%

FC Lugano (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beşiktaş at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

FC Lugano away — creates 1.56, concedes 2.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beşiktaş attack 1.50 + FC Lugano defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.86

FC Lugano attack 1.56 + Beşiktaş defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Beşiktaş scores more

42%

level

22%

FC Lugano scores more

36%

Beşiktaş at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Beşiktaş will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff