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Beşiktaş vs Dynamo Kyiv — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Beşiktaş
Beşiktaş
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dynamo Kyiv
Dynamo Kyiv
8/31/2023UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · Play-offsBeşiktaş Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Beşiktaş52%
×Draw25%
Dynamo Kyiv24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beşiktaş
1.65
Dynamo Kyiv
1.04

Beşiktaş creates 59% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

creates per match

Beşiktaş
1.50
Dynamo Kyiv
0.20

allows per match

Beşiktaş
1.88
Dynamo Kyiv
1.80

finishing

Beşiktaş+0.00on par
Dynamo Kyiv+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beşiktaş ↓

Dynamo Kyiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Beşiktaş or draw
76%
Beşiktaş or Dynamo Kyiv
75%
Draw or Dynamo Kyiv
48%

Winning margin

Beşiktaş wins by 2+
28%
Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Beşiktaş 1+ goals
81%
Beşiktaş 2+ goals
49%
Beşiktaş 3+ goals
23%
Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals
65%
Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals
28%
Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Beşiktaş (draw refunded)
68%
Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beşiktaş at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

Dynamo Kyiv away — creates 0.20, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beşiktaş attack 1.50 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.65

Dynamo Kyiv attack 0.20 + Beşiktaş defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Beşiktaş scores more
52%
level
25%
Dynamo Kyiv scores more
24%

Beşiktaş at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Beşiktaş will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa Conference League: Beşiktaş 1–0 Dynamo Kyiv

Beşiktaş beat Dynamo Kyiv 1-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on August 31, 2023.

The match was played at Beşiktaş Park in İstanbul.