Beşiktaş 1–2 Bodo/Glimt: Result & Stats

Beşiktaş

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Bodo/Glimt

11/9/2023

UEFA Europa Conference League · Group Stage - 4Tüpraş Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Beşiktaş33%

×Draw23%

Bodo/Glimt44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BeşiktaşExpected goals in this matchBodo/Glimt

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.75

Beşiktaş

1.47

Bodo/Glimt

1.75

Bodo/Glimt creates 19% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 16 away

1.50

creates per match

1.63

1.88

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Beşiktaş

1.50

Bodo/Glimt

1.63

allows per match

Beşiktaş

1.88

Bodo/Glimt

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beşiktaş+0.00on par

Bodo/Glimt+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beşiktaş ↓

Bodo/Glimt →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Beşiktaş or draw

56%

Beşiktaş or Bodo/Glimt

77%

Draw or Bodo/Glimt

67%

Winning margin

Beşiktaş wins by 2+

15%

Bodo/Glimt wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Beşiktaş 1+ goals

77%

Beşiktaş 2+ goals

43%

Beşiktaş 3+ goals

18%

Bodo/Glimt 1+ goals

83%

Bodo/Glimt 2+ goals

52%

Bodo/Glimt 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Beşiktaş (draw refunded)

42%

Bodo/Glimt (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beşiktaş at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

Bodo/Glimt away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beşiktaş attack 1.50 + Bodo/Glimt defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.47

Bodo/Glimt attack 1.63 + Beşiktaş defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Beşiktaş scores more

33%

level

23%

Bodo/Glimt scores more

44%

Bodo/Glimt at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bodo/Glimt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff