Beşiktaş 1–0 Altay: Result & Stats | Türkiye Kupası

Beşiktaş

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Altay

A. Hutchinson 61'

12/30/2021

Türkiye Kupası · 5th RoundVodafone Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Beşiktaş62%

×Draw20%

Altay19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BeşiktaşExpected goals in this matchAltay

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.24

1.15

Beşiktaş

2.24

Altay

1.15

Beşiktaş creates 95% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 5 away

2.28

creates per match

1.40

0.89

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

Beşiktaş

2.28

Altay

1.40

allows per match

Beşiktaş

0.89

Altay

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beşiktaş+0.00on par

Altay+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beşiktaş ↓

Altay →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Beşiktaş or draw

81%

Beşiktaş or Altay

80%

Draw or Altay

38%

Winning margin

Beşiktaş wins by 2+

39%

Altay wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Beşiktaş 1+ goals

89%

Beşiktaş 2+ goals

65%

Beşiktaş 3+ goals

38%

Altay 1+ goals

68%

Altay 2+ goals

32%

Altay 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Beşiktaş (draw refunded)

77%

Altay (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beşiktaş at home — creates 2.28, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

Altay away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beşiktaş attack 2.28 + Altay defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.24

Altay attack 1.40 + Beşiktaş defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Beşiktaş scores more

62%

level

20%

Altay scores more

19%

Beşiktaş at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Beşiktaş will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

Ceyhun Gülselam

34'

Umut Meraş

53'

C. Pinares← C. Karayel

55'

60'

61'

70'

70'

M. Pjanić← A. Hutchinson

77'

Francisco Montero

78'

D. Kadah← M. Rodríguez

78'

Marco Paixão← Ahmed Yasser Rayan

80'

Mohammad Naderi

82'

C. Larin← G. Yalçın

82'

Alex Teixeira← O. Özyakup

88'

E. Erdoğan← L. Kappel

88'

Ö. Özkaya← M. Naderi

90+2'

K. Karaman← M. Batshuayi

Statistics

BeşiktaşAltay

Overview

1Corners1

Discipline

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

Türkiye Kupası: Beşiktaş 1–0 Altay

Beşiktaş beat Altay 1-0 in Türkiye Kupası on December 30, 2021.

Goals: A. Hutchinson (61').

The match was played at Vodafone Park in İstanbul.

Beşiktaş vs Altay — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Statistics

Türkiye Kupası: Beşiktaş 1–0 Altay