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Besëlidhja Lezhë vs Turbina Cërrik — 1st Division 2019

Besëlidhja Lezhë
Besëlidhja Lezhë
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Turbina Cërrik
Turbina Cërrik
2/5/20231st Division1st Division · Round 14Stadiumi Besëlidhja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Besëlidhja Lezhë54%
×Draw24%
Turbina Cërrik23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.76
Turbina Cërrik
1.06

Besëlidhja Lezhë creates 66% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 52 away

creates per match

Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.60
Turbina Cërrik
0.83

allows per match

Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.29
Turbina Cërrik
1.92

finishing

Besëlidhja Lezhë+0.00on par
Turbina Cërrik+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Besëlidhja Lezhë ↓

Turbina Cërrik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Besëlidhja Lezhë or draw
77%
Besëlidhja Lezhë or Turbina Cërrik
76%
Draw or Turbina Cërrik
46%

Winning margin

Besëlidhja Lezhë wins by 2+
30%
Turbina Cërrik wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Besëlidhja Lezhë 1+ goals
83%
Besëlidhja Lezhë 2+ goals
52%
Besëlidhja Lezhë 3+ goals
26%
Turbina Cërrik 1+ goals
65%
Turbina Cërrik 2+ goals
29%
Turbina Cërrik 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Besëlidhja Lezhë (draw refunded)
70%
Turbina Cërrik (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Besëlidhja Lezhë at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.29 · 52 matches

Turbina Cërrik away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.92 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Besëlidhja Lezhë attack 1.60 + Turbina Cërrik defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.76

Turbina Cërrik attack 0.83 + Besëlidhja Lezhë defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Besëlidhja Lezhë scores more
54%
level
24%
Turbina Cërrik scores more
23%

Besëlidhja Lezhë at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Besëlidhja Lezhë will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st Division: Besëlidhja Lezhë 1–0 Turbina Cërrik

Besëlidhja Lezhë beat Turbina Cërrik 1-0 in 1st Division on February 5, 2023.

The match was played at Stadiumi Besëlidhja in Lezhë.