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Besëlidhja Lezhë vs Oriku — 1st Division 2019

Besëlidhja Lezhë
Besëlidhja Lezhë
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Oriku
Oriku
10/15/20221st Division1st Division · Round 6Stadiumi Besëlidhja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Besëlidhja Lezhë51%
×Draw27%
Oriku22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.44
Oriku
0.84

Besëlidhja Lezhë creates 71% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 40 away

creates per match

Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.60
Oriku
0.40

allows per match

Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.29
Oriku
1.27

finishing

Besëlidhja Lezhë+0.00on par
Oriku+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Besëlidhja Lezhë ↓

Oriku →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Besëlidhja Lezhë or draw
78%
Besëlidhja Lezhë or Oriku
73%
Draw or Oriku
49%

Winning margin

Besëlidhja Lezhë wins by 2+
26%
Oriku wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Besëlidhja Lezhë 1+ goals
76%
Besëlidhja Lezhë 2+ goals
42%
Besëlidhja Lezhë 3+ goals
18%
Oriku 1+ goals
57%
Oriku 2+ goals
21%
Oriku 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Besëlidhja Lezhë (draw refunded)
70%
Oriku (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Besëlidhja Lezhë at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.29 · 52 matches

Oriku away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.27 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Besëlidhja Lezhë attack 1.60 + Oriku defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.44

Oriku attack 0.40 + Besëlidhja Lezhë defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Besëlidhja Lezhë scores more
51%
level
27%
Oriku scores more
22%

Besëlidhja Lezhë at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Besëlidhja Lezhë will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st Division: Besëlidhja Lezhë 1–0 Oriku

Besëlidhja Lezhë beat Oriku 1-0 in 1st Division on October 15, 2022.

The match was played at Stadiumi Besëlidhja in Lezhë.