Besëlidhja Lezhë 0–1 Luzi 2008: Result & Stats

Besëlidhja Lezhë

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Luzi 2008

4/15/2023

1st Division · Round 23Stadiumi Besëlidhja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Besëlidhja Lezhë50%

×Draw24%

Luzi 200826%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Besëlidhja LezhëExpected goals in this matchLuzi 2008

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.13

Besëlidhja Lezhë

1.66

Luzi 2008

1.13

Besëlidhja Lezhë creates 47% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 31 away

1.60

creates per match

0.97

1.29

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Besëlidhja Lezhë

1.60

Luzi 2008

0.97

allows per match

Besëlidhja Lezhë

1.29

Luzi 2008

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Besëlidhja Lezhë+0.00on par

Luzi 2008+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Besëlidhja Lezhë ↓

Luzi 2008 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Besëlidhja Lezhë or draw

74%

Besëlidhja Lezhë or Luzi 2008

76%

Draw or Luzi 2008

50%

Winning margin

Besëlidhja Lezhë wins by 2+

26%

Luzi 2008 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Besëlidhja Lezhë 1+ goals

81%

Besëlidhja Lezhë 2+ goals

49%

Besëlidhja Lezhë 3+ goals

23%

Luzi 2008 1+ goals

68%

Luzi 2008 2+ goals

31%

Luzi 2008 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Besëlidhja Lezhë (draw refunded)

66%

Luzi 2008 (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Besëlidhja Lezhë at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.29 · 52 matches

Luzi 2008 away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.71 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Besëlidhja Lezhë attack 1.60 + Luzi 2008 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.66

Luzi 2008 attack 0.97 + Besëlidhja Lezhë defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Besëlidhja Lezhë scores more

50%

level

24%

Luzi 2008 scores more

26%

Besëlidhja Lezhë at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Besëlidhja Lezhë will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff