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Besëlidhja Lezhë vs Erzeni Shijak — 1st Division 2019

Besëlidhja Lezhë
Besëlidhja Lezhë
FT
4 – 4
HT: 2 – 1
Erzeni Shijak
Erzeni Shijak
5/26/20211st Division1st Division · Relegation Round - 10Stadiumi Besëlidhja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Besëlidhja Lezhë42%
×Draw26%
Erzeni Shijak32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.45
Erzeni Shijak
1.22

Besëlidhja Lezhë creates 19% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 55 away

creates per match

Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.60
Erzeni Shijak
1.15

allows per match

Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.29
Erzeni Shijak
1.29

finishing

Besëlidhja Lezhë+0.00on par
Erzeni Shijak+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Besëlidhja Lezhë ↓

Erzeni Shijak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Besëlidhja Lezhë or draw
68%
Besëlidhja Lezhë or Erzeni Shijak
74%
Draw or Erzeni Shijak
58%

Winning margin

Besëlidhja Lezhë wins by 2+
20%
Erzeni Shijak wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Besëlidhja Lezhë 1+ goals
77%
Besëlidhja Lezhë 2+ goals
42%
Besëlidhja Lezhë 3+ goals
18%
Erzeni Shijak 1+ goals
70%
Erzeni Shijak 2+ goals
34%
Erzeni Shijak 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Besëlidhja Lezhë (draw refunded)
57%
Erzeni Shijak (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Besëlidhja Lezhë at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.29 · 52 matches

Erzeni Shijak away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.29 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Besëlidhja Lezhë attack 1.60 + Erzeni Shijak defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.45

Erzeni Shijak attack 1.15 + Besëlidhja Lezhë defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Besëlidhja Lezhë scores more
42%
level
26%
Erzeni Shijak scores more
32%

Besëlidhja Lezhë at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Besëlidhja Lezhë will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Besëlidhja Lezhë vs Erzeni Shijak

Besëlidhja Lezhë and Erzeni Shijak drew 4-4 in 1st Division on May 26, 2021.

The match was played at Stadiumi Besëlidhja in Lezhë.