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Besa Pejë vs Trepça'89 — Superliga 2019

Besa Pejë
Besa Pejë
FT
2 – 1
Trepça'89
Trepça'89
L. da Silva 34'
A. Tahiri 9'
A. Muja 65'
10/3/2020SuperligaSuperliga · Round 5Stadiumi Shahin Haxhiislami

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Besa Pejë35%
×Draw23%
Trepça'8942%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Besa Pejë
1.51
Trepça'89
1.68

Trepça'89 creates 11% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 53 away

creates per match

Besa Pejë
0.83
Trepça'89
1.25

allows per match

Besa Pejë
2.11
Trepça'89
2.19

finishing

Besa Pejë+0.00on par
Trepça'89+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Besa Pejë ↓

Trepça'89 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Besa Pejë or draw
58%
Besa Pejë or Trepça'89
77%
Draw or Trepça'89
65%

Winning margin

Besa Pejë wins by 2+
16%
Trepça'89 wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Besa Pejë 1+ goals
78%
Besa Pejë 2+ goals
44%
Besa Pejë 3+ goals
19%
Trepça'89 1+ goals
81%
Trepça'89 2+ goals
50%
Trepça'89 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Besa Pejë (draw refunded)
45%
Trepça'89 (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Besa Pejë at home — creates 0.83, concedes 2.11 · 18 matches

Trepça'89 away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.19 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Besa Pejë attack 0.83 + Trepça'89 defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.51

Trepça'89 attack 1.25 + Besa Pejë defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Besa Pejë scores more
35%
level
23%
Trepça'89 scores more
42%

Trepça'89 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Trepça'89 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
A. Tahiri
34'
L. da Silva
65'
A. Muja
88'
D. Halili
89'
H. T. Mashau

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Besa Pejë vs Trepça'89

Besa Pejë beat Trepça'89 2-1 in Superliga on October 3, 2020.

Goals: A. Tahiri (9'), L. da Silva (34'), A. Muja (65').

The match was played at Stadiumi Shahin Haxhiislami in Peć.