Besa Pejë 2–1 Feronikeli: Result & Stats

Besa Pejë

FT

2 – 1

Feronikeli

A. Tahiri 39' (pen), 15'

M. Simonovski 28'

3/20/2021

Superliga · Round 26Fusha e Futbollit Tahir Vokshi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Besa Pejë34%

×Draw25%

Feronikeli41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Besa PejëExpected goals in this matchFeronikeli

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.50

Besa Pejë

1.36

Feronikeli

1.50

Feronikeli creates 10% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 88 away

0.83

creates per match

0.89

2.11

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Besa Pejë

0.83

Feronikeli

0.89

allows per match

Besa Pejë

2.11

Feronikeli

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Besa Pejë+0.00on par

Feronikeli+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Besa Pejë ↓

Feronikeli →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Besa Pejë or draw

59%

Besa Pejë or Feronikeli

75%

Draw or Feronikeli

66%

Winning margin

Besa Pejë wins by 2+

15%

Feronikeli wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Besa Pejë 1+ goals

74%

Besa Pejë 2+ goals

39%

Besa Pejë 3+ goals

16%

Feronikeli 1+ goals

78%

Feronikeli 2+ goals

44%

Feronikeli 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Besa Pejë (draw refunded)

46%

Feronikeli (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Besa Pejë at home — creates 0.83, concedes 2.11 · 18 matches

Feronikeli away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.89 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Besa Pejë attack 0.83 + Feronikeli defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.36

Feronikeli attack 0.89 + Besa Pejë defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Besa Pejë scores more

34%

level

25%

Feronikeli scores more

41%

Feronikeli at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Feronikeli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

A. Tahiri

28'

M. Simonovski

39'

A. TahiriPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff