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Besa Pejë vs Drita — Superliga 2019

Besa Pejë
Besa Pejë
FT
1 – 1
Drita
Drita
A. Tahiri 19'
B. Haxhimusa 62'
4/28/2021SuperligaSuperliga · Round 31Fusha e Futbollit Tahir Vokshi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Besa Pejë19%
×Draw24%
Drita57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Besa Pejë
0.89
Drita
1.71

Drita creates 92% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 124 away

creates per match

Besa Pejë
0.83
Drita
1.31

allows per match

Besa Pejë
2.11
Drita
0.94

finishing

Besa Pejë+0.00on par
Drita+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Besa Pejë ↓

Drita →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–113%
0–211%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Besa Pejë or draw
43%
Besa Pejë or Drita
76%
Draw or Drita
81%

Winning margin

Besa Pejë wins by 2+
6%
Drita wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Besa Pejë 1+ goals
59%
Besa Pejë 2+ goals
22%
Besa Pejë 3+ goals
6%
Drita 1+ goals
82%
Drita 2+ goals
51%
Drita 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Besa Pejë (draw refunded)
26%
Drita (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Besa Pejë at home — creates 0.83, concedes 2.11 · 18 matches

Drita away — creates 1.31, concedes 0.94 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Besa Pejë attack 0.83 + Drita defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.89

Drita attack 1.31 + Besa Pejë defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Besa Pejë scores more
19%
level
24%
Drita scores more
57%

Drita at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Drita will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
A. Tahiri
62'
B. Haxhimusa

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Besa Pejë vs Drita

Besa Pejë and Drita drew 1-1 in Superliga on April 28, 2021.

Goals: A. Tahiri (19'), B. Haxhimusa (62').

The match was played at Fusha e Futbollit Tahir Vokshi in Brestovik.