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Besa Pejë vs Drenica Skënderaj — Superliga 2019

Besa Pejë
Besa Pejë
FT
0 – 0
Drenica Skënderaj
Drenica Skënderaj
11/4/2020SuperligaSuperliga · Round 11Stadiumi Shahin Haxhiislami

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Besa Pejë31%
×Draw25%
Drenica Skënderaj44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Besa Pejë
1.21
Drenica Skënderaj
1.50

Drenica Skënderaj creates 24% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 88 away

creates per match

Besa Pejë
0.83
Drenica Skënderaj
0.90

allows per match

Besa Pejë
2.11
Drenica Skënderaj
1.59

finishing

Besa Pejë+0.00on par
Drenica Skënderaj+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Besa Pejë ↓

Drenica Skënderaj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Besa Pejë or draw
56%
Besa Pejë or Drenica Skënderaj
75%
Draw or Drenica Skënderaj
69%

Winning margin

Besa Pejë wins by 2+
13%
Drenica Skënderaj wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Besa Pejë 1+ goals
70%
Besa Pejë 2+ goals
34%
Besa Pejë 3+ goals
12%
Drenica Skënderaj 1+ goals
78%
Drenica Skënderaj 2+ goals
44%
Drenica Skënderaj 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Besa Pejë (draw refunded)
41%
Drenica Skënderaj (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Besa Pejë at home — creates 0.83, concedes 2.11 · 18 matches

Drenica Skënderaj away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.59 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Besa Pejë attack 0.83 + Drenica Skënderaj defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.21

Drenica Skënderaj attack 0.90 + Besa Pejë defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Besa Pejë scores more
31%
level
25%
Drenica Skënderaj scores more
44%

Drenica Skënderaj at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Drenica Skënderaj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Besa Pejë vs Drenica Skënderaj

Besa Pejë and Drenica Skënderaj drew 0-0 in Superliga on November 4, 2020.

The match was played at Stadiumi Shahin Haxhiislami in Peć.