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Besa Kavajë vs Erzeni Shijak — 1st Division 2019

Besa Kavajë
Besa Kavajë
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Erzeni Shijak
Erzeni Shijak
3/30/20251st Division1st Division · Round 30Kompleksi Sportiv Egnatia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Besa Kavajë44%
×Draw27%
Erzeni Shijak29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Besa Kavajë
1.38
Erzeni Shijak
1.08

Besa Kavajë creates 28% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 55 away

creates per match

Besa Kavajë
1.46
Erzeni Shijak
1.15

allows per match

Besa Kavajë
1.01
Erzeni Shijak
1.29

finishing

Besa Kavajë+0.00on par
Erzeni Shijak+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Besa Kavajë ↓

Erzeni Shijak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Besa Kavajë or draw
71%
Besa Kavajë or Erzeni Shijak
73%
Draw or Erzeni Shijak
56%

Winning margin

Besa Kavajë wins by 2+
21%
Erzeni Shijak wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Besa Kavajë 1+ goals
75%
Besa Kavajë 2+ goals
40%
Besa Kavajë 3+ goals
16%
Erzeni Shijak 1+ goals
66%
Erzeni Shijak 2+ goals
29%
Erzeni Shijak 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Besa Kavajë (draw refunded)
60%
Erzeni Shijak (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Besa Kavajë at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.01 · 102 matches

Erzeni Shijak away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.29 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Besa Kavajë attack 1.46 + Erzeni Shijak defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.38

Erzeni Shijak attack 1.15 + Besa Kavajë defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Besa Kavajë scores more
44%
level
27%
Erzeni Shijak scores more
29%

Besa Kavajë at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Besa Kavajë will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Besa Kavajë vs Erzeni Shijak

Besa Kavajë beat Erzeni Shijak 2-0 in 1st Division on March 30, 2025.

The match was played at Kompleksi Sportiv Egnatia in Lekaj.