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Besa Kavajë vs Apolonia Fier — 1st Division 2019

Besa Kavajë
Besa Kavajë
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Apolonia Fier
Apolonia Fier
12/2/20231st Division1st Division · Round 14Stadiumi Luz i Vogël

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Besa Kavajë43%
×Draw28%
Apolonia Fier29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Besa Kavajë
1.31
Apolonia Fier
1.03

Besa Kavajë creates 27% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 95 away

creates per match

Besa Kavajë
1.46
Apolonia Fier
1.05

allows per match

Besa Kavajë
1.01
Apolonia Fier
1.17

finishing

Besa Kavajë+0.00on par
Apolonia Fier+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Besa Kavajë ↓

Apolonia Fier →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Besa Kavajë or draw
71%
Besa Kavajë or Apolonia Fier
72%
Draw or Apolonia Fier
57%

Winning margin

Besa Kavajë wins by 2+
20%
Apolonia Fier wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Besa Kavajë 1+ goals
73%
Besa Kavajë 2+ goals
38%
Besa Kavajë 3+ goals
14%
Apolonia Fier 1+ goals
64%
Apolonia Fier 2+ goals
28%
Apolonia Fier 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Besa Kavajë (draw refunded)
59%
Apolonia Fier (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Besa Kavajë at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.01 · 102 matches

Apolonia Fier away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.17 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Besa Kavajë attack 1.46 + Apolonia Fier defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.31

Apolonia Fier attack 1.05 + Besa Kavajë defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Besa Kavajë scores more
43%
level
28%
Apolonia Fier scores more
29%

Besa Kavajë at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Besa Kavajë will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Besa Kavajë vs Apolonia Fier

Besa Kavajë and Apolonia Fier drew 0-0 in 1st Division on December 2, 2023.

The match was played at Stadiumi Luz i Vogël in Luz i Vogël.