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Apolonia Fier vs Besa Kavajë — 1st Division 2019

Apolonia Fier
Apolonia Fier
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Besa Kavajë
Besa Kavajë
K. Hoxhaj 68'
E. Topi 56'
12/3/20251st Division1st Division · Round 14Stadiumi Loni Papuciu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Apolonia Fier50%
×Draw25%
Besa Kavajë25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Apolonia Fier
1.62
Besa Kavajë
1.08

Apolonia Fier creates 50% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 99 away

creates per match

Apolonia Fier
1.79
Besa Kavajë
1.21

allows per match

Apolonia Fier
0.96
Besa Kavajë
1.45

finishing

Apolonia Fier+0.00on par
Besa Kavajë+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Apolonia Fier ↓

Besa Kavajë →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Apolonia Fier or draw
75%
Apolonia Fier or Besa Kavajë
75%
Draw or Besa Kavajë
50%

Winning margin

Apolonia Fier wins by 2+
26%
Besa Kavajë wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Apolonia Fier 1+ goals
80%
Apolonia Fier 2+ goals
48%
Apolonia Fier 3+ goals
22%
Besa Kavajë 1+ goals
66%
Besa Kavajë 2+ goals
29%
Besa Kavajë 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Apolonia Fier (draw refunded)
66%
Besa Kavajë (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Apolonia Fier at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.96 · 90 matches

Besa Kavajë away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.45 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Apolonia Fier attack 1.79 + Besa Kavajë defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.62

Besa Kavajë attack 1.21 + Apolonia Fier defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Apolonia Fier scores more
50%
level
25%
Besa Kavajë scores more
25%

Apolonia Fier at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Apolonia Fier will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

56'
E. Topi
68'
K. Hoxhaj
Apolonia
Besa
M. Tatángelo
Manager: M. Tatángelo
E. Çela
Manager: E. Çela

1st Division: Apolonia Fier 2–0 Besa Kavajë

Apolonia Fier beat Besa Kavajë 2-0 in 1st Division on December 3, 2025.

Goals: E. Topi (56'), K. Hoxhaj (68').

The match was played at Stadiumi Loni Papuciu in Fier.