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Besa Dobërdoll vs Voska Sport — First League 2019

Besa Dobërdoll
Besa Dobërdoll
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Voska Sport
Voska Sport
9/29/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 8Stadiumi i qytetit

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Besa Dobërdoll42%
×Draw26%
Voska Sport32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Besa Dobërdoll
1.44
Voska Sport
1.22

Besa Dobërdoll creates 18% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 33 away

creates per match

Besa Dobërdoll
1.06
Voska Sport
0.88

allows per match

Besa Dobërdoll
1.56
Voska Sport
1.82

finishing

Besa Dobërdoll+0.00on par
Voska Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Besa Dobërdoll ↓

Voska Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Besa Dobërdoll or draw
68%
Besa Dobërdoll or Voska Sport
74%
Draw or Voska Sport
58%

Winning margin

Besa Dobërdoll wins by 2+
20%
Voska Sport wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Besa Dobërdoll 1+ goals
76%
Besa Dobërdoll 2+ goals
42%
Besa Dobërdoll 3+ goals
18%
Voska Sport 1+ goals
70%
Voska Sport 2+ goals
34%
Voska Sport 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Besa Dobërdoll (draw refunded)
57%
Voska Sport (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Besa Dobërdoll at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches

Voska Sport away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.82 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Besa Dobërdoll attack 1.06 + Voska Sport defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.44

Voska Sport attack 0.88 + Besa Dobërdoll defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Besa Dobërdoll scores more
42%
level
26%
Voska Sport scores more
32%

Besa Dobërdoll at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Besa Dobërdoll will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Besa Dobërdoll vs Voska Sport

Besa Dobërdoll beat Voska Sport 1-0 in First League on September 29, 2024.

The match was played at Stadiumi i qytetit in Gostivar.