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Besa Dobërdoll vs Teteks — Second League 2019

Besa Dobërdoll
Besa Dobërdoll
FT
6 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Teteks
Teteks
10/8/2022Second LeagueSecond League · Round 7Stadion Vrapčište

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Besa Dobërdoll69%
×Draw18%
Teteks13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Besa Dobërdoll
2.31
Teteks
0.89

Besa Dobërdoll creates 160% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 46 away

creates per match

Besa Dobërdoll
2.17
Teteks
1.28

allows per match

Besa Dobërdoll
0.50
Teteks
2.46

finishing

Besa Dobërdoll+0.00on par
Teteks+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Besa Dobërdoll ↓

Teteks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Besa Dobërdoll or draw
87%
Besa Dobërdoll or Teteks
82%
Draw or Teteks
31%

Winning margin

Besa Dobërdoll wins by 2+
46%
Teteks wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Besa Dobërdoll 1+ goals
90%
Besa Dobërdoll 2+ goals
67%
Besa Dobërdoll 3+ goals
40%
Teteks 1+ goals
59%
Teteks 2+ goals
22%
Teteks 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Besa Dobërdoll (draw refunded)
84%
Teteks (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Besa Dobërdoll at home — creates 2.17, concedes 0.50 · 30 matches

Teteks away — creates 1.28, concedes 2.46 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Besa Dobërdoll attack 2.17 + Teteks defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.31

Teteks attack 1.28 + Besa Dobërdoll defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Besa Dobërdoll scores more
69%
level
18%
Teteks scores more
13%

Besa Dobërdoll at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Besa Dobërdoll will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Besa Dobërdoll 6–1 Teteks

Besa Dobërdoll beat Teteks 6-1 in Second League on October 8, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Vrapčište in Vrapchishte.