Besa Dobërdoll 0–1 Shkupi 1927: Result & Stats

Besa Dobërdoll

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Shkupi 1927

12/8/2024

First League · Round 18Stadiumi i qytetit

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Besa Dobërdoll37%

×Draw26%

Shkupi 192736%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Besa DobërdollExpected goals in this matchShkupi 1927

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.30

Besa Dobërdoll

1.32

Shkupi 1927

1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 106 away

1.06

creates per match

1.04

1.56

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Besa Dobërdoll

1.06

Shkupi 1927

1.04

allows per match

Besa Dobërdoll

1.56

Shkupi 1927

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Besa Dobërdoll+0.00on par

Shkupi 1927+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Besa Dobërdoll ↓

Shkupi 1927 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Besa Dobërdoll or draw

64%

Besa Dobërdoll or Shkupi 1927

74%

Draw or Shkupi 1927

63%

Winning margin

Besa Dobërdoll wins by 2+

17%

Shkupi 1927 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Besa Dobërdoll 1+ goals

73%

Besa Dobërdoll 2+ goals

38%

Besa Dobërdoll 3+ goals

15%

Shkupi 1927 1+ goals

73%

Shkupi 1927 2+ goals

37%

Shkupi 1927 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Besa Dobërdoll (draw refunded)

51%

Shkupi 1927 (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Besa Dobërdoll at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches

Shkupi 1927 away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.58 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Besa Dobërdoll attack 1.06 + Shkupi 1927 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.32

Shkupi 1927 attack 1.04 + Besa Dobërdoll defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Besa Dobërdoll scores more

37%

level

26%

Shkupi 1927 scores more

36%

Besa Dobërdoll at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Besa Dobërdoll will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff