Besa Dobërdoll 3–1 Pobeda: Result & Stats

Besa Dobërdoll

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Pobeda

12/9/2023

Second League · Round 15Stadion Vrapčište

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Besa Dobërdoll74%

×Draw17%

Pobeda9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Besa DobërdollExpected goals in this matchPobeda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

0.59

Besa Dobërdoll

2.19

Pobeda

0.59

Besa Dobërdoll creates 271% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 67 away

2.17

creates per match

0.69

0.50

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

Besa Dobërdoll

2.17

Pobeda

0.69

allows per match

Besa Dobërdoll

0.50

Pobeda

2.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Besa Dobërdoll+0.00on par

Pobeda+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Besa Dobërdoll ↓

Pobeda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–18%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Besa Dobërdoll or draw

91%

Besa Dobërdoll or Pobeda

83%

Draw or Pobeda

26%

Winning margin

Besa Dobërdoll wins by 2+

49%

Pobeda wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Besa Dobërdoll 1+ goals

89%

Besa Dobërdoll 2+ goals

64%

Besa Dobërdoll 3+ goals

37%

Pobeda 1+ goals

45%

Pobeda 2+ goals

12%

Pobeda 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Besa Dobërdoll (draw refunded)

90%

Pobeda (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Besa Dobërdoll at home — creates 2.17, concedes 0.50 · 30 matches

Pobeda away — creates 0.69, concedes 2.21 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Besa Dobërdoll attack 2.17 + Pobeda defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.19

Pobeda attack 0.69 + Besa Dobërdoll defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Besa Dobërdoll scores more

74%

level

17%

Pobeda scores more

9%

Besa Dobërdoll at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Besa Dobërdoll will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff