Besa Dobërdoll 2–0 Kozuv Gevgelija: Result & Stats

Besa Dobërdoll

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Kozuv Gevgelija

9/23/2023

Second League · Round 6Stadion Vrapčište

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Besa Dobërdoll62%

×Draw23%

Kozuv Gevgelija15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Besa DobërdollExpected goals in this matchKozuv Gevgelija

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

0.70

Besa Dobërdoll

1.73

Kozuv Gevgelija

0.70

Besa Dobërdoll creates 147% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 81 away

2.17

creates per match

0.89

0.50

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Besa Dobërdoll

2.17

Kozuv Gevgelija

0.89

allows per match

Besa Dobërdoll

0.50

Kozuv Gevgelija

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Besa Dobërdoll+0.00on par

Kozuv Gevgelija+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Besa Dobërdoll ↓

Kozuv Gevgelija →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Besa Dobërdoll or draw

85%

Besa Dobërdoll or Kozuv Gevgelija

77%

Draw or Kozuv Gevgelija

38%

Winning margin

Besa Dobërdoll wins by 2+

35%

Kozuv Gevgelija wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Besa Dobërdoll 1+ goals

82%

Besa Dobërdoll 2+ goals

52%

Besa Dobërdoll 3+ goals

25%

Kozuv Gevgelija 1+ goals

50%

Kozuv Gevgelija 2+ goals

16%

Kozuv Gevgelija 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Besa Dobërdoll (draw refunded)

81%

Kozuv Gevgelija (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Besa Dobërdoll at home — creates 2.17, concedes 0.50 · 30 matches

Kozuv Gevgelija away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.30 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Besa Dobërdoll attack 2.17 + Kozuv Gevgelija defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.73

Kozuv Gevgelija attack 0.89 + Besa Dobërdoll defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Besa Dobërdoll scores more

62%

level

23%

Kozuv Gevgelija scores more

15%

Besa Dobërdoll at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Besa Dobërdoll will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff