Besa Dobërdoll 2–1 Akademija Pandev: Result & Stats

Besa Dobërdoll

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Akademija Pandev

5/4/2025

First League · Round 30Stadiumi i qytetit

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Besa Dobërdoll36%

×Draw27%

Akademija Pandev37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Besa DobërdollExpected goals in this matchAkademija Pandev

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.25

Besa Dobërdoll

1.24

Akademija Pandev

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 110 away

1.06

creates per match

0.95

1.56

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Besa Dobërdoll

1.06

Akademija Pandev

0.95

allows per match

Besa Dobërdoll

1.56

Akademija Pandev

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Besa Dobërdoll+0.00on par

Akademija Pandev+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Besa Dobërdoll ↓

Akademija Pandev →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Besa Dobërdoll or draw

63%

Besa Dobërdoll or Akademija Pandev

73%

Draw or Akademija Pandev

64%

Winning margin

Besa Dobërdoll wins by 2+

16%

Akademija Pandev wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Besa Dobërdoll 1+ goals

71%

Besa Dobërdoll 2+ goals

35%

Besa Dobërdoll 3+ goals

13%

Akademija Pandev 1+ goals

71%

Akademija Pandev 2+ goals

36%

Akademija Pandev 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Besa Dobërdoll (draw refunded)

50%

Akademija Pandev (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Besa Dobërdoll at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches

Akademija Pandev away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.42 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Besa Dobërdoll attack 1.06 + Akademija Pandev defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.24

Akademija Pandev attack 0.95 + Besa Dobërdoll defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Besa Dobërdoll scores more

36%

level

27%

Akademija Pandev scores more

37%

Akademija Pandev at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Akademija Pandev will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff