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Berwick Rangers vs Civil Service Strollers — League #731 2026

Berwick Rangers
Berwick Rangers
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Civil Service Strollers
Civil Service Strollers
8/19/2025League #731League #731 · Lowland League - 6Shielfield Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Berwick Rangers26%
×Draw25%
Civil Service Strollers49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Berwick Rangers
1.13
Civil Service Strollers
1.63

Civil Service Strollers creates 44% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Berwick Rangers
0.75
Civil Service Strollers
2.00

allows per match

Berwick Rangers
1.25
Civil Service Strollers
1.50

finishing

Berwick Rangers+0.00on par
Civil Service Strollers+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Berwick Rangers ↓

Civil Service Strollers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Berwick Rangers or draw
51%
Berwick Rangers or Civil Service Strollers
75%
Draw or Civil Service Strollers
74%

Winning margin

Berwick Rangers wins by 2+
10%
Civil Service Strollers wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Berwick Rangers 1+ goals
68%
Berwick Rangers 2+ goals
31%
Berwick Rangers 3+ goals
11%
Civil Service Strollers 1+ goals
80%
Civil Service Strollers 2+ goals
48%
Civil Service Strollers 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Berwick Rangers (draw refunded)
35%
Civil Service Strollers (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Berwick Rangers at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Civil Service Strollers away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Berwick Rangers attack 0.75 + Civil Service Strollers defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.13

Civil Service Strollers attack 2.00 + Berwick Rangers defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Berwick Rangers scores more
26%
level
25%
Civil Service Strollers scores more
49%

Civil Service Strollers at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Civil Service Strollers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Berwick Rangers vs Civil Service Strollers

Berwick Rangers and Civil Service Strollers drew 1-1 in League #731 on August 19, 2025.

The match was played at Shielfield Park in Berwick-upon-Tweed, Northumberland.