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Berwick Rangers vs Ayr Utd — League Cup 2018

Berwick Rangers
Berwick Rangers
FT
0 – 7
HT: 0 – 5
Ayr Utd
Ayr Utd
7/13/2019League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 1Shielfield Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Berwick Rangers5%
×Draw10%
Ayr Utd84%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Berwick Rangers
0.72
Ayr Utd
3.23

Ayr Utd creates 349% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 20 away

creates per match

Berwick Rangers
0.00
Ayr Utd
2.20

allows per match

Berwick Rangers
4.25
Ayr Utd
1.45

finishing

Berwick Rangers+0.00on par
Ayr Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Berwick Rangers ↓

Ayr Utd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–17%
0–211%
0–311%
0–49%
1
1–01%
1–15%
1–28%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–23%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Berwick Rangers or draw
16%
Berwick Rangers or Ayr Utd
90%
Draw or Ayr Utd
95%

Winning margin

Berwick Rangers wins by 2+
1%
Ayr Utd wins by 2+
67%

Team goals

Berwick Rangers 1+ goals
51%
Berwick Rangers 2+ goals
16%
Berwick Rangers 3+ goals
4%
Ayr Utd 1+ goals
96%
Ayr Utd 2+ goals
82%
Ayr Utd 3+ goals
61%

Draw no bet

Berwick Rangers (draw refunded)
6%
Ayr Utd (draw refunded)
94%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Berwick Rangers at home — creates 0.00, concedes 4.25 · 4 matches

Ayr Utd away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.45 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Berwick Rangers attack 0.00 + Ayr Utd defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 0.72

Ayr Utd attack 2.20 + Berwick Rangers defence 4.25 → ÷2 → 3.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Berwick Rangers scores more
5%
level
10%
Ayr Utd scores more
84%

Ayr Utd at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Ayr Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Berwick Rangers vs Ayr Utd

Ayr Utd beat Berwick Rangers 7-0 in League Cup on July 13, 2019.

The match was played at Shielfield Park in Berwick-upon-Tweed, Northumberland.