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Beroe vs Spartak Pleven — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Beroe
Beroe
FT
3 – 0
Spartak Pleven
Spartak Pleven
2/10/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadion Beroe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Beroe73%
×Draw19%
Spartak Pleven8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beroe
2.00
Spartak Pleven
0.50

Beroe creates 300% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Beroe
1.85
Spartak Pleven
0.54

allows per match

Beroe
0.46
Spartak Pleven
2.15

finishing

Beroe+0.00on par
Spartak Pleven+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beroe ↓

Spartak Pleven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Beroe or draw
92%
Beroe or Spartak Pleven
81%
Draw or Spartak Pleven
27%

Winning margin

Beroe wins by 2+
47%
Spartak Pleven wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Beroe 1+ goals
86%
Beroe 2+ goals
59%
Beroe 3+ goals
32%
Spartak Pleven 1+ goals
39%
Spartak Pleven 2+ goals
9%
Spartak Pleven 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Beroe (draw refunded)
90%
Spartak Pleven (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beroe at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.46 · 13 matches

Spartak Pleven away — creates 0.54, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beroe attack 1.85 + Spartak Pleven defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.00

Spartak Pleven attack 0.54 + Beroe defence 0.46 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Beroe scores more
73%
level
19%
Spartak Pleven scores more
8%

Beroe at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Beroe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Beroe vs Spartak Pleven

Beroe beat Spartak Pleven 3-0 in Friendlies Clubs on February 10, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Beroe in Stara Zagora.