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Beroe vs Hebar 1918 — First League 2018

Beroe
Beroe
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Hebar 1918
Hebar 1918
11/24/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 18Stadion Beroe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Beroe50%
×Draw26%
Hebar 191824%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beroe
1.52
Hebar 1918
0.96

Beroe creates 58% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 54 away

creates per match

Beroe
1.22
Hebar 1918
0.91

allows per match

Beroe
1.01
Hebar 1918
1.81

finishing

Beroe+0.00on par
Hebar 1918+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beroe ↓

Hebar 1918 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Beroe or draw
76%
Beroe or Hebar 1918
74%
Draw or Hebar 1918
50%

Winning margin

Beroe wins by 2+
26%
Hebar 1918 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Beroe 1+ goals
78%
Beroe 2+ goals
45%
Beroe 3+ goals
20%
Hebar 1918 1+ goals
62%
Hebar 1918 2+ goals
25%
Hebar 1918 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Beroe (draw refunded)
68%
Hebar 1918 (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beroe at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.01 · 137 matches

Hebar 1918 away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.81 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beroe attack 1.22 + Hebar 1918 defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.52

Hebar 1918 attack 0.91 + Beroe defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Beroe scores more
50%
level
26%
Hebar 1918 scores more
24%

Beroe at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Beroe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Beroe vs Hebar 1918

Beroe beat Hebar 1918 2-1 in First League on November 24, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Beroe in Stara Zagora.