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Beroe vs Hebar 1918 — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Beroe
Beroe
CANC
00:00
Hebar 1918
Hebar 1918
7/6/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Beroe49%
×Draw26%
Hebar 191826%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beroe
1.52
Hebar 1918
1.03

Beroe creates 48% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 5 away

creates per match

Beroe
1.85
Hebar 1918
1.60

allows per match

Beroe
0.46
Hebar 1918
1.20

finishing

Beroe+0.00on par
Hebar 1918+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beroe ↓

Hebar 1918 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Beroe or draw
74%
Beroe or Hebar 1918
74%
Draw or Hebar 1918
51%

Winning margin

Beroe wins by 2+
25%
Hebar 1918 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Beroe 1+ goals
78%
Beroe 2+ goals
45%
Beroe 3+ goals
20%
Hebar 1918 1+ goals
64%
Hebar 1918 2+ goals
28%
Hebar 1918 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Beroe (draw refunded)
65%
Hebar 1918 (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beroe at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.46 · 13 matches

Hebar 1918 away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beroe attack 1.85 + Hebar 1918 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.52

Hebar 1918 attack 1.60 + Beroe defence 0.46 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Beroe scores more
49%
level
26%
Hebar 1918 scores more
26%

Beroe at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Beroe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Beroe face Hebar 1918 (Friendlies Clubs)

Friendlies Clubs returns with Beroe hosting Hebar 1918. Match starts July 6, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Beroe host Hebar 1918 at TBC.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.