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Beroe vs Dobrudzha — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Beroe
Beroe
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Dobrudzha
Dobrudzha
Francisco 55'
P. Yordanov 25'
6/28/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Beroe54%
×Draw25%
Dobrudzha22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beroe
1.65
Dobrudzha
0.95

Beroe creates 74% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 10 away

creates per match

Beroe
1.79
Dobrudzha
1.40

allows per match

Beroe
0.50
Dobrudzha
1.50

finishing

Beroe+0.00on par
Dobrudzha+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beroe ↓

Dobrudzha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Beroe or draw
78%
Beroe or Dobrudzha
75%
Draw or Dobrudzha
46%

Winning margin

Beroe wins by 2+
29%
Dobrudzha wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Beroe 1+ goals
81%
Beroe 2+ goals
49%
Beroe 3+ goals
23%
Dobrudzha 1+ goals
61%
Dobrudzha 2+ goals
25%
Dobrudzha 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Beroe (draw refunded)
71%
Dobrudzha (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beroe at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.50 · 14 matches

Dobrudzha away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beroe attack 1.79 + Dobrudzha defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.65

Dobrudzha attack 1.40 + Beroe defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Beroe scores more
54%
level
25%
Dobrudzha scores more
22%

Beroe at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Beroe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
P. Yordanov
43'
55'
Francisco

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Beroe vs Dobrudzha

Beroe and Dobrudzha drew 1-1 in Friendlies Clubs on June 28, 2023.

Goals: P. Yordanov (25'), Francisco (55').

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Pomorie.