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Beroe vs CSKA 1948 — First League 2018

Beroe
Beroe
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
CSKA 1948
CSKA 1948
4/15/2022First LeagueFirst League · Conference League Play-off Group - 1Stadion Beroe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Beroe37%
×Draw29%
CSKA 194835%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beroe
1.15
CSKA 1948
1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 137 home / 104 away

creates per match

Beroe
1.22
CSKA 1948
1.21

allows per match

Beroe
1.01
CSKA 1948
1.08

finishing

Beroe+0.00on par
CSKA 1948+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beroe ↓

CSKA 1948 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Beroe or draw
65%
Beroe or CSKA 1948
71%
Draw or CSKA 1948
63%

Winning margin

Beroe wins by 2+
15%
CSKA 1948 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Beroe 1+ goals
68%
Beroe 2+ goals
32%
Beroe 3+ goals
11%
CSKA 1948 1+ goals
67%
CSKA 1948 2+ goals
30%
CSKA 1948 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Beroe (draw refunded)
51%
CSKA 1948 (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beroe at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.01 · 137 matches

CSKA 1948 away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.08 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beroe attack 1.22 + CSKA 1948 defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.15

CSKA 1948 attack 1.21 + Beroe defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Beroe scores more
37%
level
29%
CSKA 1948 scores more
35%

Beroe at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Beroe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Beroe vs CSKA 1948

Beroe beat CSKA 1948 1-0 in First League on April 15, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Beroe in Stara Zagora.