Beroe 0–2 Arda Kardzhali: Result & Stats

Beroe

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Arda Kardzhali

5/7/2021

First League · Championship Round - 2Stadion Beroe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

Beroe40%

×Draw29%

Arda Kardzhali31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BeroeExpected goals in this matchArda Kardzhali

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.00

Beroe

1.19

Arda Kardzhali

1.00

Beroe creates 19% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 120 away

1.22

creates per match

0.99

1.01

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Beroe

1.22

Arda Kardzhali

0.99

allows per match

Beroe

1.01

Arda Kardzhali

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beroe+0.00on par

Arda Kardzhali+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beroe ↓

Arda Kardzhali →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Beroe or draw

69%

Beroe or Arda Kardzhali

71%

Draw or Arda Kardzhali

60%

Winning margin

Beroe wins by 2+

17%

Arda Kardzhali wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Beroe 1+ goals

70%

Beroe 2+ goals

33%

Beroe 3+ goals

12%

Arda Kardzhali 1+ goals

63%

Arda Kardzhali 2+ goals

26%

Arda Kardzhali 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Beroe (draw refunded)

57%

Arda Kardzhali (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beroe at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.01 · 137 matches

Arda Kardzhali away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.17 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beroe attack 1.22 + Arda Kardzhali defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.19

Arda Kardzhali attack 0.99 + Beroe defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Beroe scores more

40%

level

29%

Arda Kardzhali scores more

31%

Beroe at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Beroe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff